序言 对世界秩序问题的思考
1. Franz Babinger,Mehmed the Conqueror and His Time (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1978), as quoted in Antony Black,The History of Islamic Political Thought (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2011), 207.
第一章 欧洲：多元化的国际秩序
1. Kevin Wilson and Jan van der Dussen,The History of the Idea of Europe (London: Routledge, 1993).
2. Frederick B. Artz,The Mind of the Middle Ages (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953), 275–80.
3. Heinrich Fichtenau,The Carolingian Empire: The Age of Charlemagne, trans. Peter Munz (NewYork: Harper & Row, 1964), 60.
4. Hugh Thomas,The Golden Age: The Spanish Empire of Charles V (London: Allen Lane, 2010),23.
5. James Reston Jr.,Defenders of the Faith:Charles V, Suleyman the Magnificent, and the Battle for Europe, 1520–1536 (New York: Penguin Press, 2009), 40,294–95.
6. 见第三章。
7. See Edgar Sanderson, J. P. Lamberton, and John McGovern, Six Thousand Years of History, vol. 7, Famous Foreign Statesmen (Philadelphia: E. R. DuMont, 1900),246–50; Reston, Defenders of the Faith, 384–89. 对日后桀骜不驯、对普世诉求存有戒心的欧洲而言，查理大帝的统治更像盛气凌人的威胁，而不是他几乎实现了人民期待的统一。正如18世纪启蒙运动的重要人物、苏格兰哲学家大卫·休谟所说，“查理大帝将众多王国和公国置于统一管理之下，使人类再次感到了单一君主统治世界的威胁。”David Hume, “On the Balance of Power,” in Essays, Moral, Political, and Literary (1742), 2.7.13.
8. See Jerry Brotton,A History of the World in Twelve Maps (London: Penguin Books, 2013), 82–113 (discussion of the Hereford Mappa Mundi, ca. 1300); 4 Ezra 6:42; Dante Alighieri,The Divine Comedy, trans. Allen Mandelbaum (London: Bantam, 1982), 342; and Osip Mandelstam, “Conversation About Dante,” inThe Poet’s Dante, ed. Peter S. Hawkins and Rachel Jacoff (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2001), 67.
9. 黎塞留自己有一位“灰衣主教”，即他的心腹谋士弗朗索瓦·勒克莱尔·德·特朗布莱。他因身披嘉布遣会约瑟夫神甫的袍子而被人称为黎塞留的“灰衣主教”。此后，在外交史上，这一称号被用来指幕后的权势人物。Aldous Huxley, Grey Eminence: A Study in Religion and Politics (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1941).
10. See, for example, Niccolò Machiavelli,The Art of War (1521),Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livy (1531),The Prince (1532).
11. Joseph Strayer, Hans Gatzke, and E. Harris Harbison,
The Mainstream of Civilization Since 1500(New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1971), 420.
12. Richelieu, “Advis donné au roy sur le sujet de la bataille de Nordlingen,” inThe Thirty Years War: A Documentary History, ed. and trans, Tryntje Helfferich (Indianapolis: Hackett,2009), 151.
13. Peter H. Wilson,The Thirty Years War: Europe’s Tragedy (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2009), 673.
14. 大多数代表都是带着非常实际的指示来参加会议的。Ibid., 676.
15.Instrumentum pacis Osnabrugensis (1648)andInstrumentum pacis Monsteriensis (1648), in Helfferich,Thirty Years War, 255, 271.
16. Wilson,Thirty Years War, 672.
17. 这些倡导宽容的正式条文只适用于三个得到承认的基督教教派：天主教派、路德教派和加尔文教派。
18. 巴麦尊对下院的演讲，1848年3月1日。奥兰治的威廉亲王也表达了同样的思想。他为反对法国称霸企图奋斗了一代人的时间（先任荷兰执政，后来又是英格兰、爱尔兰和苏格兰的国王）。他向一位助手吐露说，假如他活在哈布斯堡王朝即将称霸欧洲的16世纪50年代，他会“既是一位西班牙人（哈布斯堡人），也是一位法国人”。日后的温斯顿·丘吉尔也是一样。20世纪30年代有人抨击他反德。他回复说：“假如目前情形颠倒过来，我们同样会亲德反法。”
19. Palmerston to Clarendon, July 20, 1856, quoted in Harold Temperley and Lillian M. Penson,Foundations of British Foreign Policy from Pitt (1792) to Salisbury(1902) (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1938), 88.
20. 促使霍布斯撰写《利维坦》的主要原因是英国的内战。这场战争给英国造成的破坏虽然不及“三十年战争”给欧洲大陆造成的破坏，但依然很严重。
21. Thomas Hobbes,Leviathan (1651) (Indianapolis: Hackett, 1994), 233.
22. 记住以下一点很重要：当时中欧只有一个大国——奥地利及其领地。普鲁士尚是位于德国最东边的一个二流国家。德意志是一个地理概念，而不是一个国家。数十个小邦国，有的微不足道，各有各的治理方式。
23. Lucy Norton, ed.,Saint-Simon at Versailles (London: Hamilton, 1958), 217–30.
24. 直到残酷的外交导致波兰连续三次被瓜分前，腓特烈治下的疆土东边三面与波兰接壤，另一面邻波罗的海。
25. Gerhard Ritter,Frederick the Great: A Historical Profile, trans. Peter Paret (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968), 29–30.
26. Frederick II of Prussia,Oeuvres, 2, XXV (1775), as quoted in Friedrich Meinecke,Machiavellism: The Doctrine of Raison d’État and Its Place in Modern History, trans. Douglas Scott (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1957) (originally published in German, 1925), 304.
27. “Not so bad for the eve of a great battle.” Frederick II, as quoted in Otto von Bismarck,Bismarck: The Man and the Statesman (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1899), 316; and Otto von Bismarck,The Kaiser vs. Bismarck: Suppressed Letters by the Kaiser and New Chapters from the Autobiography of the Iron Chancellor(New York: Harper & Brothers, 1921), 144–45.
28. 正如蒲柏在1734年所说，“关于种种治理方式的问题，还是让愚人去争论吧。什么治理效果最好，什么就是最好的。”Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man (1734), epistle iii, lines 303–4.
29. As quoted in G. P. Gooch,Frederick the Great (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1947), 4–5.
30. David A. Bell,The First Total War: Napoleon’s Europe and the Birth of Warfare as We Know It (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2007), 5.
31. 一些论著生动讲述了这一社会现象。See Susan Mary Alsop, The Congress Dances: Vienna,1814–1815 (New York: Harper & Row, 1984); Adam Zamoyski, Rites of Peace:The Fall of Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna (London: HarperPress, 2007).
32. Jean Le Rond d’Alembert,“Éléments de Philosophie”(1759), as quoted in Ernst Cassirer, The Philosophy of the Enlightenment, trans. Fritz C. A. Koelln and James P. Pettegrove,(Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1951), 3.
33. Denis Diderot, “The Encyclopedia” (1755), inRameau’s Nephew and Other Works, trans. Jacques Barzun and Ralph H. Bowen (Indianapolis: Hackett, 2001), 283.
34. Ibid., 296.
35. Montesquieu,Considérations sur les causes de la grandeur des Romains et de leur décadence (1734), as quoted in Cassirer,Philosophy of the Enlightenment, 213.
36. Immanuel Kant, “Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Purpose” (1784), inKant: Political Writings, ed. H. S. Reiss (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1991), 44.
37. Ibid.,46.
38. Ibid., 47.
39. Immanuel Kant, “Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch (1795),” in Reiss,Kant, 96.
40. 换言之，是指实行参与式统治、遵守平等适用于所有公民的法律体系的一批国家。“永久和平”此后被当作当代的“民主和平理论”。然而，康德在文中对共和国和民主制做了区分。他把前者说成是具有代表性的政治结构，“行政权力（政府）与立法权力相分离”。康德称，“真正意义上的民主”——即直接民主制，例如古希腊雅典晚期实行的民主，一切国家事务均付诸大众表决决定——“必然是一种专制主义”。Ibid., 101.
41. Ibid., 100. “亲身”两字值得强调。康德习惯抽象思维，故未提共和制的法国一例。当时法国与四周所有邻国交战并得到民众的热烈拥护。
42. Kant, “Idea for a Universal History,” 49.
43. 卢梭的著名论断：“人生而自由，但却无往不在枷锁之中。”“当第一个人圈了一小块地，脑子里冒出一个念头后脱口而出‘这是我的’”时，人类发展道路就走入了歧途。因此，只有废除私有财产，而由人们共同拥有，同时消灭人为的社会等级制度后，才能实现正义。由于拥有财产或地位的人会抵制重新引入绝对平等，这一结果只有通过暴力革命方能实现。Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Discourse on the Origin of Inequality and The Social Contract, in The Basic Political Writings(1755; 1762) (Indianapolis: Hackett, 1987), 61, 141.
44. 卢梭争辩说，只有当“我们每一个人把自己及个人的一切能力置于为公众意愿服务之下时，并且我们把每一个成员看作整体中不可分的一部分时”，才会有合法的统治。异见将被彻底消灭，因为在一个由理性和平等的社会结构组成的世界里，大众意愿内部的分歧代表了对给予民众权力原则的非法抵制。“无论是谁，只要拒绝遵从大众的意愿，全体民众就要强迫他遵从。这意味着他将被迫自由，因为每一位公民把自己托付给他的国家是确保他人身不依附他人的条件。”Rousseau, Social Contract, in The Basic Political Writings,150.
45. “Declaration for Assistance and Fraternity to Foreign Peoples” (November 19, 1792), inThe Constitutions and Other Select Documents Illustrative of the History of France, 1789–1907 (London: H. W. Wilson, 1908), 130.
46. “Decree for Proclaiming the Liberty and Sovereignty of All Peoples” (December 15, 1792), in ibid., 132–33.
47. Hegel to Friedrich Niethammer,October 13, 1806, in Hegel: The Letters, trans. Clark Butler and Christine Seiler with commentary by Clark Butler (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1985).
第二章 欧洲均势体系及其终结
1. Marquis de Custine,Empire of the Czar: A Journey Through Eternal Russia (1843; New York: Anchor Books, 1990), 69.
2. Epistle of Filofei of Pskov, 1500 or 1501, as quoted in Geoffrey Hosking, Russia: People and Empire (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1997), 5–6. 伊凡之后的历代继任人后来给这一哲学理念又加上了一层地缘政治意义。叶卡捷琳娜大帝想出了一个“希腊计划”，其最终目标是收复君士坦丁堡，封恰好与该城同名的她的孙子为当地统治者。她的弄臣波将金甚至在主子前往克里米亚的道路一侧做了“通往拜占庭之路”的标记（同时还假造了根本不存在的村庄）。对俄国（一个缺少不冻港的帝国）来说，收回失去的东正教首都成为一个具有深远的宗教和战略意义的目标。19世纪一位泛斯拉夫知识分子尼古拉·丹尼列夫斯基对这一思想脉络的概括振聋发聩：从我们国家建国之初起，君士坦丁堡始终是俄国人民渴望的目标，代表了我们的启蒙理想，象征着我们祖先的荣耀、辉煌和伟大，既是正教的中心，也是欧洲和我们之间的争议点。如果我们不理睬欧洲，能把它从土耳其人手中夺回来，君士坦丁堡对我们该有多大的历史意义啊！我们在阿亚索菲亚大教堂穹顶上放置的十字架放射出的光芒会多么令人欣喜！且不说君士坦丁堡还能带来诸多其他好处……它在世界上的地位、商业重要性、迷人的地理位置以及南方的一切魅力。”Nikolai Danilevskii, Russia and Europe: A View on Cultural and Political Relations Between the Slavic and German-RomanWorlds (St. Petersburg, 1871), as translated and excerpted in Imperial Russia: A Source Book, 1700–1917, ed. Basil Dmytryshyn (Gulf Breeze,Fla: Academic International Press,1999), 373.
3. Vasili O. Kliuchevsky,A Course in Russian History: The Seventeenth Century (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), 366. See also Hosking,Russia, 4.
4. John P. LeDonne,The Russian Empire and the World, 1700–1917: The Geopolitics of Expansion and Containment
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), 348.
5. Henry Adams,The Education of Henry Adams (1907; New York: Modern Library, 1931), 439.
6. Orlando Figes,Natasha’s Dance: A Cultural History of Russia (New York: Picador, 2002), 376–77.
7. 1864年俄国军队开进今天的乌兹别克斯坦时，外交大臣戈尔恰科夫把俄国的扩张定义为完全靠自身力量驱动的平定周边地区的一项永久性的义务：
国家（俄国）因此必须做出一项抉择：要么放弃这一不间断的努力，从而导致边界地区动乱不已，难以实现繁荣、安全和文化进步；要么不断向荒蛮之地纵深挺进，每向前走一步，长途跋涉造成的困难就会增大一分，这不是出于野心，而是出于紧迫的需要。最难的是不需要再往前走。
George Verdansky, ed., A Source Book for Russian History: From Early Times to 1917(New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1972), 3:610.
8. Marquis de Custine, Empire of the Czar, 230. 现代学者对此仍在进行研究。 See, for example, Charles J. Halperin, Russia and the Golden Horde: The Mongol Impact on Medieval Russian History (Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 1985); Paul Harrison Silfen, The Influence of the Mongols on Russia: A Dimensional History (Hicksville, N.Y.: Exposition Press,1974).
9. 彼得大帝事必躬亲的霸气作风令西欧国家感到惊奇。他在荷兰时去码头当木匠，在伦敦时拆卸钟表，再把它们修好。他还尝试牙科医学和解剖学领域里的新成果，令他的随从提心吊胆。See Virginia Cowles, The Romanovs (New York: Harper & Row, 1971), 33–37; Robert K. Massie, Peter the Great (New York: Ballantine Books, 1980), 188–89, 208.
10. B. H. Sumner,Peter the Great and the Emergence of Russia (New York: Collier Books, 1962), 45.
11. Cowles,Romanovs, 26–28; Sumner,Peter the Great and the Emergence of Russia, 27; Figes,Natasha’s Dance, 4–6.
12. Catherine II,Nakaz (Instruction) to the Legislative Commission of 1767–68, in Dmytryshyn, Imperial Russia, 80.
13. Maria Lipman, Lev Gudkov, Lasha Bakradze, and Thomas de Waal, The Stalin Puzzle: Deciphering Post-Soviet Public Opinion (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013) （对当代俄罗斯人的民意调查显示，47%的人接受以下说法：“斯大林是一位睿智的领导人，他使苏联繁荣强大。”30%的俄罗斯人认同以下说法：“我国人民永远需要一位像斯大林一样的领导人。他将现身恢复秩序。”）
14. Catherine II,Nakaz (Instruction) to the Legislative Commission of 1767–68, 80.
15. Nikolai Karamzin on Czar Alexander I, as quoted in W. Bruce Lincoln,The Romanovs: Autocrats of All the Russias (New York: Anchor Books, 1981), 489.
16. Halperin,Russia and the Golden Horde,126.
17. Fyodor Dostoevsky,A Writer’s Diary (1881), as quoted in Figes,Natasha’s Dance, 308.
18. Pyotr Chaadaev, “Philosophical Letter” (1829, published 1836), as quoted in Figes,Natasha’s Dance, 132, and
Dmytryshyn, Imperial Russia, 251. 恰达耶夫的评论因一针见血而广为流传，尽管当局马上查封此文，宣布作者有神经病，并把他置于警察监视之下。
19. Mikhail Nikiforovich Katkov, May 24, 1882, editorial inMoskovskie vedomosti (Moscow News), as excerpted in Verdansky,A Source Book for Russian History, 3:676.
20. Figes,Natasha’s Dance, 150.
21. Lincoln, The Romanovs, 404–5.
22. Ibid., 405.
23. Wilhelm Schwarz,Die Heilige Allianz (Stuttgart, 1935), 52.
24. 指1954年联邦德国决定加入大西洋联盟。它曾与今天新结成的伙伴打了一场残酷的战争，联邦德国做出的这一决定距它在战争结束时宣布无条件投降还不到10年。
25. Klemens von Metternich,Aus Metternich’s nachgelassenen Papieren, ed. Alfons v. Klinkowstroem (Vienna, 1881), 1:316.
26. Palmerston’s dispatch no. 6 to the Marquess of Clanricarde (ambassador in St. Petersburg), January 11, 1841, inThe Foreign Policy of Victorian England, ed. Kenneth Bourne (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1970), 252–53.
27. See Isaiah Berlin,Vico and Herder: Two Studies in the History of Ideas (New York: Viking,1976), 158, 204.
28. Jacques Barzun, From Dawn to Decadence: 500 Years of Western Cultural Life (New York: Perennial, 2000), 482.
29. Sir Lewis Namier,Vanished Supremacies: Essays on European History, 1812–1918 (NewYork: Penguin Books, 1958), 203.
30. Otto von Bismarck,Die gesammelten Werke, 3rd ed. (Berlin, 1924), 1: 375.
31. The battle was memorialized in classic literature on both sides, including Alfred Tennyson’s “Charge of the Light Brigade” and Leo Tolstoy’sTales of Sevastopol. See Nicholas V. Riasanovsky,A History of Russia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), 336–39.
32.Allgemeine deutsche Biographie 33 (Leipzig: Duncker & Humblot, 1891),266. Metternich left office in 1848.
33. Heinrich Sbrik,Metternich, der Staatsmann und der Mensch, 2 vols. (Munich, 1925), 1:354, as cited in Henry A. Kissinger, “The Conservative Dilemma: Reflections on the Political Thought of Metternich,”American Political Science Review 48, no. 4 (December 1954): 1027.
34. Metternich,Aus Metternich’s nachgelassenen Papieren, 1:33, 8:184.
35. Algernon Cecil,Metternich, 1773–1859 (London: Eyre and Spottiswood, 1947), 52.
36. Metternich,Aus Metternich’s nachgelassenen Papieren, 1:334.
37.Briefwechsel des Generals Leopold von Gerlach mit dem Bundestags-Gesandten Otto von Bismarck(Berlin, 1893), 334.
38. Ibid. (February 20, 1854), 130.
39. Horst Kohl,Die politischen Reden des Fursten Bismarck (Stuttgart, 1892), 264.
40. Bismarck,Die gesammelten Werke (November 14, 1833), vol. 14,nos. 1, 3.
41. Ibid. (September 29, 1851), 1:62.
42. Speech of February 9, 1871, in Hansard,Parliamentary Debates,ser. 3, vol. 204 (February–March 1871), 82.
43. 与此形成鲜明对照的是，为普鲁士赢得统一德国的战争的战略家老毛奇当时曾计划在两条战线上采取守势。
44. For stimulating accounts of these developments, see Christopher Clark,The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 (New York: HarperCollins, 2013) and Margaret MacMillan,The War That Ended Peace: The Road to 1914 (New York: Random House, 2013).
45. See John Maynard Keynes,The Economic Consequences of the Peace (New York: Macmillan, 1920), Chapter 5.
46. See Chapters 6 and 7.
第三章 伊斯兰主义和中东：世界乱局
1. Adda B. Bozeman, “Iran: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Tradition of Persian Statecraft,”Orbis 23, no. 2 (Summer 1979): 397.
2. See Hugh Kennedy,The Great Arab Conquests: How the Spread of Islam Changed the World We Live In(London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson,2007), 34–40.
3. Kennedy,Great Arab Conquests, 113.
4. See generally Marshall G. S. Hodgson,The Venture of Islam: Conscience and History in a World Civilization, vol. 1,The Classical Age of Islam (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974).
5. Majid Khadduri,The Islamic Law of Nations: Shaybani’s Siyar (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1966), 13.
6. Majid Khadduri,War and Peace in the Law of Islam (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1955), 56. See also Kennedy,Great Arab Conquests,48–51; Bernard Lewis,The Middle East: A Brief History of the Last 2,000 Years (New York: Touchstone, 1997), 233–38.
7. 民主制和人权推动了人们为实现全球变革采取行动。在此意义上，事实证明它们的内涵和适用性比跟在军队后面迫使他人皈依的宗教教义更灵活。毕竟不同国家人民的民主意愿可以带来极其不同的结果。
8. Labeeb Ahmed Bsoul,International Treaties (Mu had t)in Islam: Theory and Practice in the Light of Islamic International Law(Siyar)According to Orthodox Schools (Lanham,Md.: University Press of America,2008), 117.
9. Khadduri,Islamic Law of Nations, 12.See also Bsoul,International Treaties,108–9.
10. See James Piscatori, “Islam in the International Order,” inThe Expansion of International Society, ed. Hedley Bull and Adam Watson (New York: Oxford University Press, 1985), 318–19; Lewis,Middle East, 305; Olivier Roy,Globalized Islam: The Search for a New Ummah (New York: Columbia University Press, 2004), 112 (on contemporary Islamist views); Efraim Karsh,Islamic Imperialism: A History (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2006), 230–31. But see Khadduri,War and Peace in the Law of Islam, 156–57 (on the traditional conditions under which territory captured by non-Muslims might revert to being part ofdar al-harb).
11. An analysis of this schism and its modern implications may be found in Vali Nasr,The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: W. W. Norton, 2006).
12. Brendan Simms,Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy from 1453 to the Present (New York: Basic Books, 2013), 9–10; Black,History of Islamic Political Thought, 206–7.
13. 在英语里它们被误称为“降书”，不是因为奥斯曼帝国在任何一点上“屈从了”，而是因为这些文件被分为章节或条款（拉丁文是capitula）。
14. 1526年2月，苏莱曼答复法国的弗朗西斯。Roger Bigelow Merriman, Suleiman the Magnificent, 1520–1566 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1944), 130. See also Halil Inalcik, “The Turkish Impact on the Development of Modern Europe,” in The Ottoman State and Its Place in World History, ed. Kemal H. Karpat (Leiden: E. J. Brill, 1974), 51–53; Garrett Mattingly, Renaissance Diplomacy (New York: Penguin Books, 1955), 152.大约500年后，在一段双边关系紧张时期，土耳其总理埃尔多安出于礼节送给法国总统萨科齐一份这封信的复印件，但抱怨说：“我觉得他没看这封信。”Today’s Zaman, December 23, 2011.
15. 1853年，据说俄国沙皇尼古拉一世告诉英国大使：“我们手上有一个病夫，一个病得很重的人。如果有一天他从我们手中溜走了，尤其是在尚未做出必要安排之前，那可就麻烦大了。”Harold Temperley, England and the Near East (London: Longmans, Green,1936), 272.
16. Sultan Mehmed-Rashad,“Proclamation,” and Sheik-ulIslam, “Fetva,” inSource Records of the Great War, ed. Charles F. Horne and Walter F. Austin (Indianapolis: American Legion, 1930), 2:398–401. See also Hew Strachan,The First World War (New York: Viking, 2003), 100–101.
17. Arthur James Balfour to Walter Rothschild, November 2, 1917, in Malcolm Yapp,The Making of the Modern Near East, 1792–1923 (Harlow: Longmans, Green), 290.
18. See Erez Manela,The Wilsonian Moment:Self- Determination and the International Origins of Anticolonial Nationalism,1917–1920(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007).
19. See Roxanne L. Euben and Muhammad Qasim Zaman, eds.,Princeton Readings in Islamist Thought: Texts and Contexts from al-Banna to Bin Laden (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009), 49–53.
20. Hassan al-Banna, “Toward the Light,” in ibid., 58–59.
21. Ibid., 61–62.
22. Ibid., 68–70.
23.Sayyid Qutb,Milestones, 2nd rev.English ed. (Damascus, Syria: Dar al-Ilm, n.d.), 49–51.
24. Ibid., 59–60, 72, 84, 137.
25. For a discussion of the evolution from Qutb to bin Laden, see Lawrence Wright,The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (New York: Random House, 2006).
26. 奥巴马总统在与加拿大总理哈珀举行的联合记者招待会上的讲话，2011年2月4日；2011年2月6日接受福克斯电视网的采访时，奥巴马总统针对埃及的谈话；“总统对埃及的表态”，2011年2月11日。
27. 总统对叙利亚局势的谈话，2011年8月18日。http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/08/18/statement-president-obama-situation-syria.
28. Mariam Karouny, “Apocalyptic Prophecies Drive Both Sides to Syrian Battle for End of Time,” Reuters, April 1, 2014.
29. 应利雅得的要求，以阻止萨达姆·侯赛因夺取沙特阿拉伯油田的任何企图。
30. See “Message from Usama Bin-Muhammad Bin Ladin to His Muslim Brothers in the Whole World and Especially in the Arabian Peninsula: Declaration of Jihad Against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Mosques; Expel the Heretics from the Arabian Peninsula,” in FBIS Report, “Compilation of Usama bin Ladin Statements, 1994–January 2004,” 13; Piscatori, “Order, Justice, and Global Islam,” 279–80.
31. For an exposition of this phenomenon, see David Danelo, “Anarchy Is the New Normal: Unconventional Governance and 21st Century Statecraft” (Foreign Policy Research Institute, October 2013).
第四章 美国与伊朗：不同的秩序理念
1. Ali Khamenei, “Leader’s Speech at Inauguration of Islamic Awakening and Ulama Conference” (April 29,2013),Islamic Awakening 1, no. 7(Spring 2013).
2. Ibid.
3. “Islamic Invitation Turkey, “The Leader of Islamic Ummah and Oppressed People Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei: Islamic Awakening Inspires Intl. Events,” November 27, 2011.
4. 关于这一传统，最著名的例子之一是公元前6世纪波斯阿契美尼德帝国的开国君主居鲁士解放被巴比伦奴役的人民，包括犹太人。自称“四极之王”的居鲁士推翻巴比伦帝国进入巴比伦后发出敕令：巴比伦所有的奴隶都可自由返乡，一切宗教都将得到包容。居鲁士是第一个推行宗教多元主义的统治者。据信2 000年后，托马斯·杰斐逊读了色诺芬的《居鲁士的教育》中的这个故事后深受激励，对居鲁士高度赞扬。See “The Cyrus Cylinder: Diplomatic Whirl,” Economist, March 23, 2013.
5. Herodotus,The History, trans. David Grene (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987), 1.131–135, pp. 95–97.
6. Kenneth M. Pollack,The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America (New York: Random House,2004), 18–19. See also John Garver,China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-imperial World (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2006).
7. “See Roy Mottahedeh, The Mantle of the Prophet:Religion and Politics in Iran (Oxford: Oneworld, 2002), 144; Reza Aslan, “The Epic of Iran,” New York Times, April 30, 2006. 阿布卡萨姆·费尔多西在伊斯兰教征服波斯两个世纪后写成的史诗《国王之书》叙述了波斯被伊斯兰教征服之前光辉灿烂的传说。身为伊斯兰教什叶派教徒的费尔多西通过史诗中的人物之口哀叹：“诅咒这个世界，诅咒这个时代，诅咒这个命运/野蛮的阿拉伯人把我变成了穆斯林。”此言捕捉到了波斯人复杂的心情。
8. See Sandra Mackey,The Iranians: Persia, Islam, and the Soul of a Nation (New York: Plume, 1998), 109n1.
9. Ruhollah Khomeini, “Islamic Government,” inIslam and Revolution: Writings and Declarations of Imam Khomeini (1941–1980),trans. Hamid Algar (North Haledon, N.J.: Mizan Press, 1981), 48–49.
10. As quoted in David Armstrong,Revolution and World Order: The Revolutionary State in International Society (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), 192.
11. Khomeini, “Islamic Government,” “The First Day of God’s Government,” and “The Religious Scholars Led the Revolt,” inIslam and Revolution, 147, 265, 330–31.
12. R. W. Apple Jr., “Will Khomeini Turn Iran’s Clock Back 1,300 Years?,” New York Times, February 4, 1979.
13. See Charles Hill,Trial of a Thousand Years: World Order and Islamism (Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 2011), 89–91.
14. 这些活动基本上是秘密的，因此有关报告必然只能披露其中的一部分。有人说德黑兰在一定程度上和塔利班以及基地组织合作，或至少默许它们的活动。See, for example, Thomas Kean, Lee Hamilton, et al., The 9/11 Commission Report (New York: W. W. Norton, 2004), 61, 128, 240–41, 468, 529; Seth G. Jones, “Al Qaeda in Iran,” Foreign Affairs, January 29, 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137061/ sethg-jones/al-qaeda-in-iran.
15. Akbar Ganji, “Who Is Ali Khamenei: The Worldview of Iran’s Supreme Leader,”Foreign Affairs, September/October 2013. See also Thomas Joscelyn, “Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Revolution,” Longwarjournal.org, January 28, 2011.
16. Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran (October 24, 1979), as amended, Section I, Article 11.
17. Khomeini, “New Year’s Message” (March 21, 1980),in Islam and Revolution, 286.
18. 这在伊朗《宪法》中做了规定：“在（时代的监护人，隐身的伊玛目）（愿真主加速他的重现）救世主掩蔽期间，伊斯兰乌玛的领导权由公正虔诚的人承担，他洞察世事、勇敢无畏、足智多谋、治理有方。他将根据107条担任该职务。”参见《伊朗伊斯兰共和国宪法》（1979年10月24日修订）第一部分第5条。伊朗革命的高潮期间，霍梅尼任由人们传说他是脱掩蔽而出的救世主，或至少是救世主的使者。See Milton Viorst, In the Shadow of the Prophet: The Struggle for the Soul of Islam (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press,2001), 192.
19. “Address by H.E. Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Before the Sixtysecond Session of the United Nations General Assembly” (New York: Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations, September 25, 2007), 10.
20. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to George W.Bush, May 7, 2006, Council on Foreign Relations online library; “Iran Declares War,”New York Sun, May 11, 2006.
21. As quoted in Arash Karami, “Ayatollah Khamenei: Nuclear Negotiations Won’t Resolve US-Iran Differences,” AlMonitor.com Iran Pulse, February 17, 2014, http://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2014/02/3917/ayatollah -khameneinuclear-negotiations-wont-resolve-us-iran-differences/.
22. As quoted in Akbar Ganji, “Frenemies Forever: The Real Meaning of Iran’s ‘Heroic Flexibility,’ ”Foreign Affairs, September 24, 2013, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139953/akbar-ganji/frenemies-forever.
23. 核爆炸可利用两类材料引发——浓缩铀和浓缩钚。通常认为，通过控制浓缩钚反应比通过控制浓缩铀反应来引发核爆炸在技术上难度更大。所以，要防止获得核爆炸能力，主要是堵死铀浓缩这条通道。（钚反应堆也使用铀做燃料，因此需要得到一定数量的铀，也需要熟知铀加工的技术。）伊朗在实现铀浓缩和获得钚的生产技术这两个方面都有了进展，这两个问题也都属于伊核谈判的范围。
24. This account of the negotiating record makes reference to events and proposals described in a number of sources, including the Arms Control Association, “History of Official Proposals on the Iranian Nuclear Issue,” January 2013; Lyse Doucet, “Nuclear Talks: New Approach for Iran at Almaty,” BBC.co.uk, February 28, 2013; David Feith, “How Iran Went Nuclear,”Wall Street Journal, March 2, 2013; Lara Jakes and Peter Leonard, “World Powers Coax Iran into Saving Nuclear Talks,”Miami Herald, February 27, 2013; Semira N. Nikou, “Timeline of Iran’s Nuclear Activities” (United States Institute of Peace, 2014); “Timeline: Iranian Nuclear Dispute,” Reuters, June 17, 2012; Hassan Rohani, “Beyond the Challenges Facing Iran and the IAEA Concerning the Nuclear Dossier” (speech to the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council),Rahbord, September 30, 2005, 7–38, FBISIAP20060113336001; Steve Rosen, “Did Iran Offer a ‘Grand Bargain’ in 2003?,”American Thinker, November 16, 2008; and Joby Warrick and Jason Rezaian, “Iran Nuclear Talks End on Upbeat Note,”Washington Post,February 27, 2013.
25. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remarks to members of the Iranian Majles (Parliament), Fars News Agency, as translated and excerpted in KGS NightWatch news report, May 26, 2014.
26. David Remnick, “Going the Distance,”New Yorker, January 27, 2014.
27. Address by Yitzhak Rabin to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, July 26, 1994, online archive of the Yitzhak Rabin Center.
第五章亚洲的多样性
1. Philip Bowring, “What Is ‘Asia’?,”Far Eastern Economic Review, February 12, 1987.
2. Qi Jianguo, “An Unprecedented Great Changing Situation: Understanding and Thoughtson the Global Strategic Situation and Our Country’s National Security Environment,”Xuexi shibao [Study Times], January 21, 2013, trans. James A. Bellacqua and Daniel M. Hartnett (Washington, D.C.: CNA, April 2013).
3. See Immanuel C. Y. Hsu,The Rise of Modern China (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), 315–17; Thant Myint-U,Where China Meets India (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), 77–78; John W. Garver,Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century(Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2001),138–40; Lucian W. Pye,Asian Power and Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985), 95–99; Brotton,History of the World in Twelve Maps, chap. 4.
4. See, for example, David C. Kang,East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), 77–81.
5. Kenneth B. Pyle,Japan Rising (New York: Public Affairs, 2007), 37.
6. John W. Dower,War Without Mercy: Race and Power in the Pacific War(New York: Pantheon, 1986), 222.
7. See Samuel Hawley,The ImjinWar: Japan’s SixteenthCentury Invasion of Korea and Attempt to Conquer China(Seoul: Royal Asiatic Society, Korea Branch, 2005).
8. Kang, East Asia Before the West, 1–2, 93–97.
9. Hidemi Suganami, “Japan’s Entry into International Society,” in Bull and Watson,Expansion of International Society, 187.
10. Marius Jansen,The Making of Modern Japan (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2002), 87.
11. Suganami, “Japan’s Entry into International Society,” 186–89.
12. “ President Millard Fillmore to the Emperor of Japan (presented by Commodore Perry on July 14, 1853), in Francis Hawks and Matthew Perry,Narrative of the Expedition of an American Squadron to the China Seas and Japan, Performed in the Years 1852, 1853, and 1854, Under the Command of Commodore M. C. Perry, United States Navy, by Order of the Government of the United States(Washington, D.C.: A. O. P. Nicholson,1856), 256–57.
13. Translation of the Japanese reply to President Fillmore’s letter, in ibid., 349–50.
14. Meiji Charter Oath, inJapanese Government Documents, ed. W. W. McLaren (Bethesda, Md.: University Publications of America, 1979), 8.
15. Japanese memorandum delivered to the American Secretary of State Cordell Hull, December 7, 1941, as quoted in Pyle,Japan Rising, 207.
16. See, for example, Yasuhiro Nakasone, “A Critical View of the Postwar Constitution” (1953), in Sources of Japanese Tradition, ed. Wm. Theodore de Bary, Carol Gluck, and Arthur E. Tiedemann (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), 2:1088–89. 中曾根这篇讲话是在哈佛大学的国际研讨会上做的，开办研讨会是为使世界各国的年轻领导人接触了解美国的学术环境。中曾根论称，为了“加速日本与美国永久友谊的发展”，日本的独立防卫能力应当加强，与美国的伙伴关系应更加平等。30年后中曾根成为日本首相，卓有成效地推动了这方面的政策，并得到了美国总统里根的支持。
17. National Security Strategy (Provisional Translation) (Tokyo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, December 17, 2013), 1–3. The document, adopted by Japan’s Cabinet, stated that its principles “will guide Japan’s national security policy over the next decade.”
18. S. Radhakrishnan, “Hinduism,” inA Cultural History of India, ed. A. L. Basham (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1997), 60–82.
19. 葡萄牙探险家瓦斯科·达·伽马就是这样对卡利卡特的国王解释的（卡利卡特是今天印度的科泽科德，当时是全球香料贸易的中心之一）。达·伽马和手下的船员因为有机会在印度兴旺的香料和宝石贸易中分一杯羹而兴奋欣喜。他们也受了关于“普莱斯特·约翰”的消失的王国这一传说的影响。许多中世纪和近代早期的欧洲人相信，普莱斯特·约翰是一位强大的基督徒国王，住在非洲或亚洲。See Daniel Boorstin, The Discoverers (New York: Vintage Books, 1985),104–6, 176–77.
20.The Bhagavad Gita, trans. Eknath Easwaran (Tomales,Calif.: Nilgiri Press, 2007), 82–91; Amartya Sen,The Argumentative Indian: Writings on Indian History, Culture, and Identity (New York: Picador, 2005), 3–6.
21. See Pye, Asian Power and Politics, 137–41.
22. Kautilya,Arthashastra, trans. L. N. Rangarajan (New Delhi: Penguin Books India, 1992), 6.2.35–37, p. 525.
23. Ibid., 9.1.1, p. 588. Prussia’s Frederick the Great, on the eve of his seizure of the wealthy Austrian province of Silesia roughly two thousand years later, made a similar assessment. See Chapter 1.
24. Ibid., 6.2.39–40, p. 526.
25. Ibid., 9.1.21, p. 589.
26. Ibid., 7.6.14, 15, p. 544.
27. See Roger Boesche,The First Great Political Realist: Kautilya and His “Arthashastra” (Lanham, Md.: Lexington Books, 2002), 46; Kautilya,Arthashastra, 7.13.43, 7.2.16, 9.1.1–16, pp. 526, 538,588–89.
28. 按照考底利耶的观念，征服四海的统治者的王国是“北起喜马拉雅山，南至大海，自东到西1 000由旬（yojana，古印度长度单位，约相当于11.2公里）的地方”——等于现代的巴基斯坦、印度和孟加拉国的领土之和。Kautilya,Arthashastra, 9.1.17, p. 589.
29. See Boesche,First Great Political Realist, 38–42, 51–54, 88–89.
30. Max Weber, “Politics as a Vocation,” as quoted in ibid., 7.
31.当时，阿育王因宣扬佛教和非暴力而受到崇敬，但他完成了征服大业之后才采纳了这些理念，用它们来加强他的统治。
32. Robert Kaplan,The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate(New York: Random House, 2012), 237.
33. John Robert Seeley,The Expansion of England: Two Courses of Lectures (London: Macmillan, 1891), 8.
34. Sir John Strachey,India (London: Kegan, Paul, Trench, 1888),as quoted in Ramachandra Guha,India After Gandhi: The History of the World’s Largest Democracy(New York: Ecco, 2007), 3.
35. Jawaharlal Nehru, “India’s Foreign Policy” (speech delivered at the Constituent Assembly, New Delhi, December 4, 1947), inIndependence and After: A Collection of Speeches, 1946–1949 (New York: John Day, 1950), 204–5.
36. As quoted in Baldev Raj Nayar and T. V. Paul, India in the World Order:Searching for Major-Power Status(NewYork: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 124–25.
37. As quoted in ibid., 125.
38. Jawaharlal Nehru, “Speech to the Bandung Conference Political Committee” (1955), as printed in G. M. Kahin,The Asian-African Conference (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1956), 70.
39. “Agreement (with Exchange of Notes) on Trade and Intercourse Between Tibet Region of China and India, Signed at Peking, on 29 April 1954,” United Nations Treaty Series, vol. 299 (1958), 70.
40. 在撰写本书时，阿富汗仍不肯正式承认与巴基斯坦的边界；印度和巴基斯坦对克什米尔地区有争议；印度和中国就阿克赛钦和藏南地区争执不下，1962年还因领土争端打了一仗；印度和孟加拉国表示愿意谈判解决两国在彼此领土上几十个飞地的问题，但没有达成协议，还因在这些领土上巡逻的问题发生过冲突。
41. See Pew Research Center Forum on Religion and Public Life,The Global Religious Landscape: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Major Religious Groups as of 2010(Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center, 2012), 22.
42. “European Russia,” or Russia west of the Ural Mountains, constitutes roughly the westernmost quarter of Russia’s landmass.
第六章 通往亚洲秩序之路：对抗还是伙伴关系？
1. See Mark Mancall, “The Ch’ing Tribute System: An Interpretive Essay,” inThe Chinese World Order, ed. John K. Fairbank (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1968), 63.
2. See Mark Mancall,China at the Center: 300 Years of Foreign Policy(New York: Free Press, 1984), 16–20; Jonathan Spence, The Search for Modern China,2nd ed. (New York: W. W. Norton, 1999), 197 202.
3. Ying-shih Yü,Trade and Expansion in Han China: A Study in the Structure of Sino-Barbarian Economic Relations (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1967), 37.
4. Qianlong’s First Edict to King George III (September 1793), inThe Search for Modern China: A Documentary Collection, ed. Pei-kai Cheng, Michael Lestz, and Jonathan Spence (New York: W. W. Norton, 1999), 105.
5. 摄政王代乔治三世国王摄政，因为乔治三世得了精神病。
6. “The Emperor of China,”Chinese Recorder 29, no. 10 (1898): 471–73.
7.Papers Relating to Foreign Affairs Accompanying the Annual Message of the President to the First Session of the Thirty-eighth Congress (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1864), Document No. 33 (“Mr. Burlingame to Mr. Seward, Peking, January 29, 1863”), 2:846–48.
8. James Legge,The Chinese Classics; with a Translation, Critical and Exegetical Notes, Prolegomena, and Copious Indexes, vol. 5, pt. 1 (Hong Kong: Lane, Crawford, 1872), 52–53.
9. See Rana Mitter,Forgotten Ally: China’s World War II, 1937–1945 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2013).
10. “Sixty Points on Working Methods——a Draft Resolution from the Office of the Centre of the CPC: 19.2.1958,” in Mao Papers: Anthology and Bibliography, ed. Jerome Ch’en (London: Oxford University Press, 1970), 63–66.
11. “National Intelligence Estimate13-7-70: Communist China’s International Posture” (November 12,1970), inTracking the Dragon: National Intel ligence Estimates on China During the Era of Mao, 1948–1976, ed. John Allen, John Carver, and Tom Elmore (Pittsburgh: Government Printing Office, 2004), 593–94.
12. See Graham Allison, “Obama and Xi Must Think Broadly to Avoid a Classic Trap,”New York Times, June 6, 2013; Richard Rosecrance,The Resurgence of the West:How a Transatlantic Union Can Prevent War and Restore the United States and Europe(New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2013).
13. In a speech of February 13, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the Obama administration’s “Pivot to East Asia” regional strategy, the extent of which has yet to be fully elaborated.
14. As quoted in Zhu Majie, “Deng Xiaoping’s Human Rights Theory,” inCultural Impact on International Relations, ed. Yu Xintian, Chinese Philosophical Studies (Washington, D.C.: Council for Research in Values and Philosophy, 2002), 81.
15. 由于德国实现了统一，第一次世界大战前欧洲的均势只剩了5个参与方。见第二章。
第七章 “代表全人类行事”：美国及其秩序观
1. “Speech on Conciliation with America” (1775), in Edmund Burke,On Empire, Liberty, and Reform: Speeches
and Letters, ed. David Bromwich (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2000), 81–83. 伯克同情美国独立战争，因为他认为这是英国式自由的自然演进。他反对法国大革命，他认为这场革命破坏了几代人努力的成果，也破坏了自然发展的前景。
2. Alexis de Tocqueville, “Concerning Their Point of Departure,” inDemocracy in America, trans. George Lawrence (New York: Harper & Row, 1969), 46–47.
3. Paul Leicester Ford, ed.,The Writings of Thomas Jefferson(New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 1892–99), 8:158–59, quoted in Robert W. Tucker and David C. Hendrickson,Empire of Liberty: The Statecraft of Thomas Jefferson (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), 11.
4. Jefferson to Monroe, October 24, 1823, as excerpted in “Continental Policy of the United States: The Acquisition of Cuba,”United States Magazine and Democratic Review,April 1859, 23.
5. Jefferson to Madison, April 27, 1809, in ibid.
6. 对来自英格兰和北欧的移居者来说，在很大程度上是这种情况；而来自西班牙的人则把它主要看作有待开发的领土，居住在那里的土著人将转而皈依基督教。
7. John Winthrop, “A Model of Christian Charity” (1630). See Brendan Simms, Europe, 36.
8. Publius [Alexander Hamilton], The Federalist 1, in Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay, The Federalist Papers (New York: Mentor, 1961), 1–2. 这里的“帝国”是指拥有完全主权的独立实体。
9. John O’Sullivan, “Annexation,”United States Magazine and Democratic Review,July–August 1845, 5.
10. John Quincy Adams, “An Address Delivered at the Request of the Committee of Citizens of Washington, 4 July 1821” (Washington, D.C.: Davis and Force, 1821), 28–29.
11. Ibid.
12. “从东往西迁移”从理论上讲，是指世界统治权的转移，即最高政治权力宝座的时空变化：从巴比伦和波斯到希腊，到罗马，到法国或德国，再到英国和（摩尔斯设想的）美国。乔治·伯克莱（George Berkeley）在“关于美洲艺术和学识前景的诗歌”中就有如下著名的诗句：
帝国走向西行之路；
前四节已经落幕，
第五节是大戏的终点，
最后往往是关键一步。
13. Jedidiah Morse,The American Geography; or, A View of the Present Situation of the United States of America,2nd ed. (London: John Stockdale, 1792), 468–69, as excerpted inManifest Destiny and American Territorial Expansion: A Brief History with Documents, ed. Amy S. Greenberg (Boston: Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2012),
14. John O’Sullivan, “The Great Nation of Futurity,”United States Magazine and Democratic Review, November 1839, 426–27.
15. O’Sullivan, “Annexation,” 9–10.
16. See Amanda Foreman,A World on Fire: Britain’s Crucial Role in the American Civil War(New York:Random House, 2011); Howard Jones,Blue and Gray Diplomacy: A History of Union and Confederate Foreign Relations (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2009).
17. Foreman, World on Fire, 784. 美国武装部队人员从南北战争结束时的1 034 064人下降到 18个月后的正规军 54 302人、志愿军11 000人。
18. Fareed Zakaria,From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1998), 47.
19. Grover Cleveland, First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1885, inThe Public Papers of Grover Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1889), 8.
20. Thomas G. Paterson, J. Garry Clifford, and Kenneth J. Hagan,American Foreign Policy: A History (Lexington, Mass.: D. C. Heath, 1977), 189.
21. Theodore Roosevelt, Inaugural Address, March 4, 1905, inUnited States Congressional Serial Set 484 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1905), 559.
22. Theodore Roosevelt, “International Peace,” Nobel lecture, May 5, 1910, inPeace: 1901–1925: Nobel Lectures (Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co., 1999), 106.
23. Roosevelt’s statement to Congress, 1902, quoted in John Morton Blum,The Republican Roosevelt (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1967), 137.
24. Roosevelt to Spring Rice, December 21, 1907, inThe Selected Letters of Theodore Roosevelt, ed. H. W. Brands (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2001), 465.
25. Theodore Roosevelt, review ofThe Influence of Sea Power upon History, by Alfred Thayer Mahan,Atlantic Monthly, October 1890.
26. Theodore Roosevelt, “The Strenuous Life,” in The Strenuous Life: Essays and Addresses (New York: Century, 1905), 9.
27. 当德国和英国战舰1902年向长期负债累累的委内瑞拉行进，准备强制收回一笔早就逾期的贷款时，罗斯福要求两国保证不得以追债方式寻求领土和政治扩张。但德国代表只承诺放弃“永久性”占有领土（留下了建立期限99年的租界的可能，如英国在埃及以及英国、德国在中国所做的那样），罗斯福于是威胁发动战争。他随即派一支美国舰队挥师南下，并把委内瑞拉海港的地图发放给媒体。这一策略奏效了。罗斯福保持沉默，好让威廉皇帝保全面子，退出这场危机。这个时候，德意志帝国在委内瑞拉的野心遭到了决定性重创。See Edmund Morris, Theodore Rex (New York: Random House, 2001), 176–82.
28. Theodore Roosevelt’s Annual Message to Congress for 1904, HR 58A-K2, Records of the U.S. House of Representatives, RG 233, Center for Legislative Archives, National Archives.
29. Ibid.
30. 为展示美国的力量，罗斯福本人亲自前往视察运河区建设工程，这是美国在任总统第一次离开美国本土。
31. Morris,Theodore Rex, 389.
32. Ibid., 397.
33. Roosevelt’s statement to Congress, 1904, quoted in Blum,Republican Roosevelt, 134.
34. Morris,Theodore Rex, 495.
35. Letter to Kermit Roosevelt, April 19, 1908, in Brands,Selected Letters, 482–83.
36. Roosevelt to Admiral Charles S. Sperry, March 21, 1908, in ibid., 479.
37. Roosevelt to Hugo Munsterberg, October 3, 1914, in ibid., 823.
38. See James R. Holmes,Theodore Roosevelt and World Order: Police Power in International Relations(Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 2007), 10–13, 68–74.
39. Roosevelt, “International Peace,” 103.
40. Roosevelt to Carnegie, August 6, 1906, in Brands,Selected Letters, 423.
41. Woodrow Wilson, Commencement Address at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point (June 13, 1916), inPapers of Woodrow Wilson, ed. Arthur S. Link (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1982), 37:212.
42. Woodrow, Wilson, Address to a Joint Session of Congress on the Conditions of Peace (January 8, 1918) (“Fourteen Points”), as quoted in A. Scott Berg,Wilson (New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 2013), 471.
43. 总体而言，美国先后与玻利维亚、巴西、智利、中国、哥斯达黎加、丹麦、厄瓜多尔、法国、英国、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、意大利、挪威、巴拉圭、秘鲁、葡萄牙、俄国和西班牙签订了这种仲裁协定。它还开始与瑞典、乌拉圭、阿根廷、多米尼加、希腊、荷兰、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、波斯（即现在的伊朗）、萨尔瓦多、瑞士和委内瑞拉开始签约谈判。Treaties forthe Advancement of Peace Between the United States and Other Powers Negotiated by the Honorable William J. Bryan, Secretary of State of the United States, with an Introduction by James Brown Scott (New York: Oxford University Press, 1920).
44. Woodrow Wilson, Message to Congress, April 2, 1917, inU.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy from 1789 to the Present, ed. Carl C. Hodge and Cathal J. Nolan (Santa Barbara, Calif.: ABC-CLIO, 2007), 396.
45. “Peace Without Victory,” January 22, 1917, in supplement toAmerican Journal of International Law 11 (1917): 323.
46. Wilson, Message to Congress, April 2, 1917, inPresident Wilson’s Great Speeches, and Other History, Making Documents (Chicago: Stanton and Van Vliet, 1917), 17–18.
47. Woodrow Wilson, Fifth Annual Message, December 4, 1917, inUnited States Congressional Serial Set 7443 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1917), 41.
48. Woodrow Wilson, “An Address at Mount Vernon,” July 4, 1918, in Link,Papers, 48:516.
49. Wilson, Message to Congress, April 2, 1917,President Wilson’s Great Speeches, 18.
50. Wilson, Fifth Annual Message, December 4, 1917, in The Foreign Policy of President Woodrow Wilson: Messages, Addresses and Papers,ed. James Brown Scott (New York: Oxford University Press, 1918), 306.
51. Ibid. See also Berg, Wilson, 472–73.
52. Woodrow Wilson, Remarks at Suresnes Cemetery on Memorial Day, May 30, 1919, in Link,Papers, 59:608–9.
53. Lloyd George, Wilson memorandum, March 25, 1919, in Ray Stannard Baker, ed.,Woodrow Wilson and World Settlement (New York: Doubleday, Page, 1922), 2:450. For a conference participant’s account of the sometimes less than idealistic process by which the new national borders were drawn, see Harold Nicolson,Peacemaking, 1919 (1933; London: Faber & Faber, 2009). For a contemporary analysis, see Margaret MacMillan,Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World(New York: Random House, 2002).
54. Address, January 22, 1917, in Link,Papers, 40:536–37.
55. Wilson, Message to Congress, April 2, 1917,President Wilson’s Great Speeches, 18.
56. Wilson, Address to a Joint Session of Congress on the Conditions of Peace (January 8, 1918) (“Fourteen Points”), inPresident Wilson’s Great Speeches, 18. See also Berg, Wilson, 469–72.
57. 一般情况下，在主要大国力量没有直接卷入的地区，当它们都认为有必要监控有关国家之间协议的落实情况时，联合国提供了有益的维和机制。联合国比国联强得多，履行了许多重要职能：为处于困难中的外交接触提供论坛，完成了几次重大的维和行动，推出了许多人道主义举措。这些国际机制未能做到也不可能完成的是：当大国有分歧的时候，它们无法参与判断哪一项具体行为构成了侵略，无法决定采取什么方式抵制侵略。
58. “Differences Between the North Atlantic Treaty and Traditional Military Alliances,” appendix to the testimony of Ambassador Warren Austin, April 28, 1949, in U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations,The North Atlantic Treaty, hearings, 81st Cong., 1st sess. (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1949), pt. I.
59. Roosevelt to James Bryce, November 19, 1918, inThe Letters of Theodore Roosevelt, ed. Elting E. Morrison (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1954), 8:1400.
60. 为了镇压对意大利殖民扩张的抵抗，1935年，墨索里尼下令意大利军队入侵了今天的埃塞俄比亚。尽管国际上齐声谴责，国联也没有采取集体安全措施。通过不加区分地轰炸和使用毒气，意大利占领了阿比西尼亚。这个新生的国际共同体既没有有效地应对日本帝国入侵中国东北地区，也没有对这次意大利的侵略采取行动，导致国联名存实亡。
61. 美国与他国达成的规定放弃战争作为国家政策的条约，1928年8月27日于巴黎签署，1929年1月16日参议院建议批准，1929年1月17日由总统批准。批准书于1929年3月2日分别存放于美国（华盛顿）、澳大利亚、加拿大自治领、捷克斯洛伐克、德国、英国、印度、爱尔兰自由邦、意大利、新西兰和南非联邦，1929年3月26日存放于波兰，1929年3月27日存放于比利时，1929年4月22日存放于法国，1929年7月24日存放于日本，1929年7月24日宣布生效。
62. See Peter Clarke,The Last Thousand Days of the British Empire: Churchill, Roosevelt, and the Birth of the Pax Americana(New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2009).
63. Radio Address at Dinner of Foreign Policy Association, New York, October 21, 1944, inPresidential Profiles: The FDR Yearsed. William D. Peterson (New York: Facts on File, 2006), 429.
64. Fourth Inaugural Address, January 20, 1945, inMy Fellow Americans: Presidential Inaugural Addresses from George Washington to Barack Obama(St. Petersburg, Fla.: Red and Black Publishers, 2009).
65. William C. Bullitt, “How We Won the War and Lost the Peace,”Life, August 30, 1948, as quoted in Arnold Beichman, “Roosevelt’s Failure at Yalta,”Humanitas 16, no. 1 (2003): 104.
66. 罗斯福一抵达德黑兰，斯大林就宣称苏联情报部门发现了纳粹的阴谋，企图在峰会上一起暗杀丘吉尔、罗斯福和斯大林，代号“远跳”。美国代表团成员对苏联的报告深表怀疑。 Keith Eubank, Summit at Teheran: The Untold Story (New York: William Morrow, 1985), 188–96.
67. As quoted in T. A. Taracouzio,War and Peace in Soviet Diplomacy (New York: Macmillan, 1940), 139–40.
68. Charles Bohlen,Witness to History, 1929–1969 (New York: W. W. Norton, 1973), 211. See also Beichman, “Roosevelt’s Failure at Yalta,” 210–11.
69. Conrad Black, Franklin Delano Roosevelt: Champion of Freedom (New York: PublicAffairs, 2003). 虽然我倾向于布莱克的解释，但罗斯福也可以称得上是“斯芬克斯”，不会给出明确的答案。温斯顿·丘吉尔概括起来比较容易。战争期间，他曾若有所思地说，如果他能每周在克里姆林宫吃一顿饭，一切都会好起来的。随着“二战”接近结束，他命令参谋长准备与苏联开战。
第八章 美国：心情矛盾的超级大国
1. “二战”后第一位总统杜鲁门解释道，“美国的外交政策坚定地建立在公平正义的原则之上”，“我们一定要努力把这一黄金原则应用到这个世界的国际事务中去”。艾森豪威尔曾是一位坚强的士兵，作为总统，他几乎用同样的话语来表达目标：“我们希望和平……在国家生活中扎根。必须有正义，所有人民都能感受和分享……必须有法律，所有国家都援用和尊重它。”因此，正如杰拉尔德·福特在1974年国会联席会议上所说：“成功的外交政策，是把全体美国人民的希望向外延伸，追求一个有序和平、有序改良和有序自由的世界。”Harry S. Truman, Address on Foreign Policy at the Navy Day Celebration in New York City, October 27, 1945; Dwight D. Eisenhower, Second Inaugural Address (“The Price of Peace”), January 21, 1957, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957–1961, 62–63. Gerald Ford, Address to a Joint Session of Congress, August 12, 1974, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Gerald R. Ford (1974–1977), 6.
2. Lyndon B. Johnson, Address to the United Nations General Assembly, December 17, 1963.
3. For an eloquent exposition, see Robert Kagan,The World America Made (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2012).
4. Milovan Djilas,Conversations with Stalin, trans. Michael B. Petrovich (New York: Harcourt Brace & Company, 1962), 114.
5. Kennan to Charles Bohlen, January 26, 1945, as quoted in John Lewis Gaddis,George Kennan: An American Life (New York: Penguin Books, 2011), 188.
6. Bohlen,Witness to History, 176.
7. 美国大使馆当时暂时没有大使。W·埃夫里尔·哈里曼已经离任，而沃尔特·比德尔·史密斯尚未赴任。
8. “X” [George F. Kennan], “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,”Foreign Affairs 25, no. 4 (July 1947).
9. Ibid.
10. Robert Rhodes James, ed.,Winston S. Churchill: His Complete Speeches, 1897–1963(New York: Chelsea House, 1974), 7:7710.
11. A Report to the National Security Council by the Executive Secretary on United States Objectives and Programs for National Security, NSC-68 (April 14, 1950), 7.
12. John Foster Dulles, “Foundations of Peace” (address to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, New York, August 18, 1958).
13. George H. W. Bush faced a similar issue after Saddam Hussein’s forces had been expelled from Kuwait in 1991.
14. Shen Zhihua,Mao, Stalin, and the Korean War: Trilateral Communist Relations in the 1950s, trans. Neil Silver (London: Routledge, 2012), 140.
15. Chen Jian,China’s Road to the Korean War: The Making of the Sino-American Confrontation (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994), 149–50. On the Chinese leadership’s analysis of the war and its regional implications, see also Sergei N. Goncharov, John W. Lewis, and Xue Litai,Uncertain Partners: Stalin, Mao, and the Korean War (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1993); Henry Kissinger,On China (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), chap. 5; Shen,Mao, Stalin, and the Korean War;and Shu Guang Zhang,Mao’s Military Romanticism: China and the Korean War, 1950–1953 (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1995).
16. See Chapter 5.
17. General Omar N. Bradley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testimony before the Senate Committees on Armed Services and Foreign Relations, May 15, 1951, inMilitary Situation in the Far East, hearings, 82nd Cong., 1st sess., pt. 2, 732 (1951).
18. See Peter Braestrup,Big Story: How the American Press and Television Reported and Interpreted the Crisis of Tet 1968 in Vietnam and Washington(Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1977); Robert Elegant, “How to Lose a War: The Press and Viet Nam,”Encounter (London), August 1981, 73–90; Guenter Lewy,America in Vietnam (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), 272–79, 311–24.
19. “An Interview with the President: The Jury Is Out,”Time, January 3, 1972.
20. Richard Nixon, U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1970’s: Building for Peace: A Report to the Congress, by Richard Nixon, President of the United States, February 25, 1971, 107. 直到这个时候，美国政府文件一直把中国称为“共产党中国”或泛称为北京或北平（国民党给这个城市的名称）当局。
21. Richard Nixon, Remarks to Midwestern News Media Executives Attending a Briefing on Domestic Policy in Kansas City, Missouri, July 6, 1971, inPublic Papers of the Presidents, 805–6.
22. See Kissinger,On China,chap. 9.
23. Richard Nixon, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 1973, inMy Fellow Americans,333.
24. Richard Nixon,U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1970’s: Building for Peace, 10.
25. Richard Nixon,U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1970’s: A New Strategy for Peace,February 18, 1970, 9.
26. Richard Nixon, U.S.Foreign Policy for the 1970’s: Shaping a Durable Peace,May 3, 1973, 232–33.
27. Ronald Reagan, Farewell Address to the American People, January 11, 1989, inIn the Words of Ronald Reagan: The Wit, Wisdom, and Eternal Optimism of America’s 40th President,ed Michael Reagan (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 2004), 34.
28. Ronald Reagan,An American Life (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990), 592.
29. Lou Cannon,President Reagan: The Role of a Lifetime (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990), 792.
30. Ronald Reagan, Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union, January 25, 1984, inThe Public Papers of President Ronald W. Reagan,Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
31. George H. W. Bush, Remarks to the Federal Assembly in Prague, Czechoslovakia, November 17, 1990, accessed online at Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, eds.,The American Presidency Project.
32. Ibid.
33. George H. W. Bush, Remarks at Maxwell Air Force Base War College, Montgomery, Alabama, April 13, 1991, in Michael D. Gambone,Small Wars: Low-Intensity Threats and the American Response Since Vietnam (Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 2012), 121.
34. “Confronting the Challenges of a Broader World,” President Clinton Address to the UN General Assembly, New York City, September 27, 1993, inDepartment of State Dispatch 4, no. 39 (September 27, 1993).
35. Ibid.
36. George W. Bush, Presidential Address to a Joint Session of Congress, September 20, 2001, inWe Will Prevail: President George W. Bush on War, Terrorism, and Freedom (New York: Continuum, 2003), 13.
37. George W. Bush, Presidential Address to the Nation, October 7, 2001, in ibid., 33.
38. “Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-establishment of Permanent Government Institutions,” December 5, 2001, UN peacemaker online archive.
39. UN Security Council Resolution 1510 (October 2003).
40. 的确有人透露，即便呼吁新政府注意性别敏感性，在波恩的起草者们还是得赞扬“阿富汗的圣战者……是圣战英雄（heroes）”。
41. Winston Churchill,My Early Life (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1930), 134.
42. See Chapter 2.
43.The National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2002).
44. George W. Bush, Remarks by the President at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, United States Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (November 6, 2003).
45. 1991年的联合国687号决议敦促停止第一次海湾战争的敌对行为，条件是伊拉克立即销毁储存的大规模杀伤性武器，并承诺永远不再发展此类武器。伊拉克没有遵守687号决议。早在1991年8月，安理会就宣布伊拉克“实质上违背了”自身义务。海湾战争之后数年中，安理会又通过了十多项决议，要求伊拉克完全遵守停火条款。安理会后来发现，萨达姆·侯赛因“1998年最终停止了与联合国武器检查特别委员会和国际原子能机构的所有合作”，赶走了停火协议要求它接待的联合国检查员。2002年11月，安理会通过了1441号决议，“谴责”伊拉克十年来拒不遵守协议，确定“伊拉克一直且仍然实质违背了有关决议规定的义务”。首席检查员汉斯·布利克斯并不是主战派，他于2003年1月向安理会提出报告，称巴格达没有解决突出的问题且态度前后不一。世界将长期讨论这场军事行动的意义，也将思考之后民主改造伊拉克时将采取的战略。不过，只要还是忽略多边背景，这场争论及其对将来违反国际不扩散原则行为的意义也将模糊不清。
46. William J. Clinton, Statement on Signing the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, October 31, 1998.
47. Remarks by the President at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, Washington, D.C., November 6, 2003.
48. Peter Baker,Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House(New York: Doubleday, 2013), 542.
49. Ibid., 523.
50. George Shultz, “Power and Diplomacy in the 1980s,”Washington, D.C., April 3, 1984,Department of State Bulletin, vol. 84, no. 2086 (May 1984), 13.
第九章 技术、均衡和人的意识
1. For a review of these theoretical explorations, see Michael Gerson, “The Origins of Strategic Stability: The United States and the Threat of Surprise Attack,” inStrategic Stability: Contending Interpretations, ed. Elbridge Colby and Michael Gerson (Carlisle, Pa: Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, 2013); Michael Quinlan,Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009).
2. See Chapter 6.
3. 关于1973年中东危机中美国的“核戒备”，已经有许多著述。实际上，其主要目的是让常规部队（第六舰队和一个空降师）进入戒备状态，以应对勃列日涅夫在致尼克松的信中所发出的威胁，即他将派苏联部队赴中东作战。战略部队战备状态的升级是边际性的，莫斯科很可能根本就没有注意到。
4. C. A. Mack, “Fifty Years of Moore’s Law,”IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing 24, no. 2 (May 2011): 202–7.
5. For mostly optimistic reviews of these developments, see Rick Smolan and Jennifer Erwitt, eds.,The Human Face of Big Data(Sausalito, Calif.: Against All Odds, 2013); and Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen,The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013). For more critical perspectives, see Jaron Lanier,Who Owns the Future? (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2013); Evgeny Morozov,The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011); andTo Save Everything, Click Here: The Folly of Technological Solutionism (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013).
6. 诺伯特·维纳在其1948年的著作《控制论》中引入了“网络”这个词，指一种沟通节点，不过所指的是人与人之间而不是计算机与计算机之间。接近当前用法的“网络空间”这个词出自20世纪80年代几位科幻小说作家的著作。
7. Viktor Mayer-Schönberger and Kenneth Cukier,Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2013), 73–97.
8. Don Clark, “‘Internet of Things’ in Reach,”Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2014.
9. Smolan and Erwitt,Human Face of Big Data, 135.
10. See David C. Gompert and Phillip Saunders,The Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Relations in an Age of Vulnerability (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 2011).
11. Ralph Langer, “Stuxnet: Dissecting a Cyberwarfare Weapon,”IEEE Security and Privacy 9, no. 3 (2011): 49–52.
12. Rex Hughes, quoting General Keith Alexander, in “A Treaty for Cyberspace,”International Affairs 86, no. 2 (2010): 523–41.
13. Publius [James Madison],The Federalist 10, in Hamilton, Madison, and Jay,Federalist Papers, 46–47.
14. See “Digital Set to Surpass TV in Time Spent with US Media: Mobile Helps Propel Digital Time Spent,” eMarketer.com, August 1, 2013 (reporting that the average American adult spends “5 hours per day online, on nonvoice mobile activities or with other digital media” and 4.5 hours per day watching television); Brian Stelter, “8 Hours a Day Spent on Screens, Study Finds,”New York Times,March 26, 2009 (reporting that “adults are exposed to screens... for about 8.5 hours on any given day”).
15. T. S. Eliot, Collected Poems, 1909–1962 (Boston: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1991), 147.
16. Betsy Sparrow, Jenny Liu, and Daniel M. Wegner, “Google Effects on Memory: Cognitive Consequences of Having Information at Our Fingertips,”Science333, no. 6043 (2011): 776–78.
17. See Nicholas Carr,The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains(New York: W. W. Norton, 2010).
18. Erik Brynjolfsson and Michael D. Smith, “The Great Equalizer? Consumer Choice Behavior at Internet Shopbots” (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Sloan School of Management, 2001).
19. Neal Leavitt, “Recommendation Technology: Will It Boost E-commerce?,”Computer 39, no. 5 (2006): 13–16.
20. See Clive Thompson,Smarter Than You Think: How Technology Is Changing Our Minds for the Better (New York: Penguin Press, 2013).
21. Schmidt and Cohen,New Digital Age, 35, 198–99.
22. See for example, Ofeibea Quist-Arcton, “Text Messages Used to Incite Violence in Kenya,” National Public Radio, February 20, 2008 and “When SMS Messages Incite Violence in Kenya,”Harvard Law School Internet & Democracy Blog, February 21, 2008. For a discussion of this and other examples, see Morozov,Net Delusion, 256–61.
23. 也就是说，“预测分析”领域方兴未艾，既用于商业用途，也用于政府领域，预测社会和个人层面的思想和行为。See Eric Siegel, Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die (Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons, 2013).
24. For an exploration of this concept, particularly as applied to the commercial realm, see Lanier,Who Owns the Future?
25. See Chapter 3.
26. Mayer-Schönberger and Cukier,Big Data, 150.
27. Edmund Burke,Reflections on the Revolution in France (1790; Indianapolis: Hackett, 1987), 29.
结论当今时代能建立世界秩序吗？
1. For a compelling exploration of this shift and its possible implications, see Charles Kupchan,No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).
2. The seminal work about prospects for a world ordered on such a basis is Samuel Huntington,The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996).
3. On the evolution and appeal of different models, see John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge,The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State (New York: Penguin Press, 2014).
4. Edmund Burke to Charles-Jean-François Depont, November 1789, inOn Empire, Liberty, and Reform, 412–13.
5. G. S. Kirk and J. E. Raven,The Presocratic Philosophers: A Critical History with a Selection of Texts (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1957), 193, 195, 199 (on Heraclitus); Friedrich Nietzsche,The Pre-Platonic Philosophers, trans. with commentary by Greg Whitlock (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 2001).
6. Henry A.Kissinger, “The Meaning of History:Reflections on Spengler, Toynbee and Kant” (undergraduate thesis, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1950).
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